CSU predicting 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes this year
Cheryl McCloudUSA TODAY NETWORK - Florida
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- There is a 62% percent probability of at least 1 major hurricane hitting US this year.
- An average hurricane season has 14.4 named storms; CSU is predicting 23.
- Extremely warm waters in the tropical Atlantic and La Niña are behind predictions for an active hurricane season.
Colorado State University issued an updated forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season Tuesday morning, June 11.
The news hasn't improved, but at least it wasn't worse.
Forecasters continue to predict an "extremely active Atlantic hurricane season."
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➤Tropics watch, June 11: What is NHC tracking now?
"We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean," Colorado State University's announcement said.
A major hurricane is one that is a Category 3 or stronger, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
Every forecast for the 2024 season has predicted an above-normal season, with AccuWeather forecasters going as far as saying it's possible for the 2020 record of 24 named storms could be broken.
CSU updated forecast for 2024 hurricane season
Colorado State University's June 11 forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is the same as the prediction released April 13, calling for:
- 23 named storms
- 11 hurricanes
- 5 major hurricanes
"We anticipate that La Niña conditions will develop by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, likely resulting in reduced levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear," CSU said.
Water temperatures in the Atlantic basin — which encompasses the northern Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico — remain at record warm levels.
Those extremely warm sea surface temperatures provide an environment for hurricane formation and intensification.
What are the probabilities of at least 1 major hurricane hitting US, Florida?
CSU is predicting:
- Entire continental U.S. coastline: 62%
- The average from 1880-2020 is 43%
- U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida (south and east of Cedar Key): 34%
- The average from 1880-2020 is 21%
- Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle (west and north of Cedar Key) westward to Brownsville: 42%
- The average from 1880-2020 is 27%
How does Colorado State University's most recent prediction compare to prior forecast?
In April, Colorado State University issued its first 2024 Atlantic hurricane season forecast. That prediction also called for:
- 23 named storms
- 11 hurricanes
- 5 major hurricanes
Hurricane season forecasts released for 2024 season
National Hurricane Center: The National Hurricane Center is predicting an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance for a below-normal season.
- 17-25 named storms
- 8-13 hurricanes
- 4-7 major hurricanes
AccuWeather:AccuWeather is predicting this season has the potential to break the all-time recordof 30 named storms in one season set in 2020.
- 20-25 named storms
- 8-12 hurricanes
- 4-7 major hurricanes
- 4-6 direct U.S. impacts
Why is the 2024 hurricane season expected to be so busy?
Indications as early as February have had forecasters on edge, predicting it will be an active season because of the combination ofLa Niña and record warm water temperaturesin the Atlantic basin. The two together pack a powerful punch when it comes to hurricanes.
"La Niña typically increases Atlantic hurricane activity," Colorado State forecasters said. La Niña lacks the wind shear associated with El Niño that helps tear apart developing storms or keeping others from intensifying.
"Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic are currently at record warm levels and are anticipated to remain well above average for the upcoming hurricane season."
Those warm Atlantic waters provide an environment favorable for both the development and intensification of hurricanes, CSU said.
What is the average number of hurricanes in a hurricane season?
Based on averages from 1991 to 2020, an average Atlantic hurricane season has14.4 named storms, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The average number of hurricanes is 7.2 and the average number of major hurricanes is 3.2, CSU said. That makes predictions for 2024 well above the average.
The first named storm typically forms in mid to late June, thefirst hurricane tends to form in early to mid-August,and the first major hurricane forms in late August or early September, although there have been exceptions to all of these.
Countdown clock: When will 2024 hurricane season end?
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season started June 1. It'll end Nov. 30, although storms can and have occurred outside of those dates.
Hurricane tracker: How to track tropical storms, hurricanes
Can't see the map?Open in a new browser.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Florida sales tax holiday ends June 14
"Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them," CSU said.
"Preparations should be made for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted."
Residents still have a few more days to take advantage of Florida's first disaster preparedness sales tax holiday, which ends Friday, June 14.
A second two-week period will run from Aug. 24 to Sept. 6.
